It was back to my winning ways yesterday with a 2-1 SU showing here and more than a unit in profit. It’s a small slate Thursday with a handful of late games to target the afternoon markets.
These are my three favorite pitcher props and MLB picks for Thursday, July 10. `
Josh's best starting pitcher props for July 10
Strider u7.5 Ks (+120)
Buehler o15.5 outs (+130)
Woo o5.5 hits allowed (+105)
Today's SP best bets
Braves vs. Athletics
The angle: Sacramento will be a scorcher tonight.
The move: Spencer Strider Under 7.5 strikeouts (+120 at BetMGM)
Sacramento is a tough spot to pitch today with a 100-degree heat, and the ball is expected to fly again. Spencer Strider is also coming off a season-high 100 pitches in his last start, and a game on the road usually gives worse results.
His Under 7.5 Ks isn’t available everywhere and there could be a better price if this number does flip at DraftKings or bet365. However, the +120 price on what will be a tough setting coming off his biggest workload of the season is a buy for me to +115.
He has 28 Ks over 25 innings on the road but command issues away from Atlanta are driving up the pitch count. I like his Under 17.5 outs at +130 and his Over 2.5 earned runs at -120 or better today as well.
Rays vs. Red Sox
The angle: It's a plus-money short total with a pitcher who can reach 100 pitches.
The move: Walker Buehler Over 15.5 outs (+130 at BetMGM)
Betting on Walker Buehler has been an up-and-down ride this year, but with a projected pitch count of 90+ pitches and paying +130 to get an out in the sixth inning at home vs. the Rays, I’m biting.
He went 21 outs on 97 pitches vs. the Mariners just five starts ago and then had three straight tough starts. He may have gotten the train on the tracks with a 100-pitch, two-ER performance last outing. If he can get that kind of leash tonight, I'll be a happy camper.
He has been a much better pitcher at home, too, with a 3.93 ERA over 36 innings vs. an 8.66 ERA on 35 innings on the road.
It’s a great price for a home start and with a pitcher who could touch triple-digits.
Mariners vs. Yankees
The angle: Woo sees a lot of batters, and his splits favor the opposing offense.
The move: Bryan Woo Over 5.5 hits allowed (+105 at Fanatics)
Bryan Woo is an efficient pitcher and has hit the Over 17.5 outs in all 17 of his starts this year. He can get deep and keep that pitch count low with some quick innings, but he can also rack up some hits allowed with that leash.
On the road, he is close to a hit/inning pitcher, and the Seattle starter is paying plus money for more than five hits allowed to an offense that is hitting .309 over the last seven days. His ERA is almost double on the road than at home in a hitter-friendly ballpark. Yankee Stadium is not T-Mobile Park.
It’s a tough matchup and he is going to flirt with 18 outs. There is plenty of room to get hit in this game, and he can still hit this Over while pitching well as he can navigate trouble and has elite command, meaning lots of balls in play.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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