The San Diego Padres conclude a four-game series with the Arizona Diamondbacks on MLB Network tonight.
Corbin Carroll is set up for a successful day at the dish in the series finale, making his total bases prop an appealing target in my Diamondbacks vs. Padres predictions.
Read more in my MLB picks for Thursday, July 10, with first pitch set for 9:40 p.m. at Petco Park.
Diamondbacks vs Padres prediction
My Diamondbacks vs Padres best bet: Corbin Carroll Over 1.5 total bases (-115 at DraftKings)
The San Diego Padres send Randy Vasquez to the bump on Thursday night.
The 26-year-old has been a valuable innings eater with a 3.79 ERA, but his underlying metrics are begging for significant regression. Both his 5.78 xERA and 5.32 FIP are major concerns heading into the second half of the season.
He doesn’t make batters miss (first percentile whiff rate), leading to a startlingly low 12.5% strikeout rate. When the right-hander does get hit, he gets hit hard (13th percentile barrel rate), leading to a .278 xBA.
Perhaps most notable about his numbers are his platoon splits. Vasquez is walking more lefties (13.8% walk rate) than he’s striking out (10.2% strikeout rate), leading to an ugly 6.47 FIP and 1.68 WHIP.
That’s a continuation of struggles against lefties as he allowed them to slash .365/.421/.539 a year ago.
Corbin Carroll has a 159 wRC+ against right-handed pitchers with a robust .257/.336/.619 slash line, so he’s poised to do damage in this matchup.
The 24-year-old outfielder is 5-for-10 against Vasquez in his career and shouldn’t have much trouble adding to that tally.
Diamondbacks vs Padres same-game parlay (SGP)
Corbin Carroll Over 1.5 total bases
Josh Naylor Over 1.5 total bases
Over 8.5
Josh Naylor mashes RHP with a 147 wRC+ and .317/.385/.509 slash line, so he also stands to benefit from a matchup against Vasquez.
The Diamondbacks are starting Eduardo Rodriguez, and that’s meant one thing this season — play the Over. Arizona is 10-2 O/U across the veteran southpaw’s last 12 starts, and San Diego hits better against lefties.
Diamondbacks vs Padres odds
Diamondbacks vs Padres live odds
Diamondbacks vs Padres opening odds
- Moneyline: Arizona +120 | San Diego -140
- Run line: Arizona +1.5 (-180) | San Diego -1.5 (+150)
- Over/Under: Over 7.5 | Under 7.5
Diamondbacks vs Padres trend
The Diamondbacks have cashed the Over in 10 of the last 12 games in which Eduardo Rodriguez has been the starting pitcher. Find more MLB betting trends for Padres vs. Diamondbacks.
How to watch Diamondbacks vs Padres and game info
| Location | PETCO Park, San Diego, CA |
| Date | Thursday, 7-10-2025 |
| First pitch | 9:40 p.m. ET |
| TV | MLBN |
| Diamondbacks starting pitcher | Eduardo Rodriguez (3-5, 5.78 ERA) |
| Padres starting pitcher | Randy Vasquez (3-4, 3.79 ERA) |
Diamondbacks vs Padres latest injuries
Diamondbacks vs Padres weather
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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