Diamondbacks vs Padres Prediction, Picks & Odds — Thursday, July 10

Yonke's prediction: Corbin Carroll has fared well against Randy Vasquez in his career, and we expect that to continue tonight.

JD Yonke - Betting Analyst at Covers.com
JD Yonke • Betting Analyst
Jul 10, 2025 • 18:30 ET • 4 min read

MLB

Match starts: 2 hrs
SD
65 %
AZ
35 %
EXPERT PICK - PROP
Corbin Carroll o1.5  Total Bases (-115) Corbin Carroll o1.5 Total Bases (-115)
Read Analysis
Corbin Carroll Arizona Diamondbacks MLB
Photo By - Imagn Images. Arizona Diamondbacks right fielder Corbin Carroll (7) runs to third.

The San Diego Padres conclude a four-game series with the Arizona Diamondbacks on MLB Network tonight.

Corbin Carroll is set up for a successful day at the dish in the series finale, making his total bases prop an appealing target in my Diamondbacks vs. Padres predictions. 

Read more in my MLB picks for Thursday, July 10, with first pitch set for 9:40 p.m. ET at Petco Park.  

Diamondbacks vs Padres prediction

My Diamondbacks vs Padres best bet: Corbin Carroll Over 1.5 total bases (-115 at DraftKings)

The San Diego Padres send Randy Vasquez to the bump on Thursday night.

The 26-year-old has been a valuable innings eater with a 3.79 ERA, but his underlying metrics are begging for significant regression. Both his 5.78 xERA and 5.32 FIP are major concerns heading into the second half of the season.

He doesn’t make batters miss (first percentile whiff rate), leading to a startlingly low 12.5% strikeout rate. When the right-hander does get hit, he gets hit hard (13th percentile barrel rate), leading to a .278 xBA.

Perhaps most notable about his numbers are his platoon splits. Vasquez is walking more lefties (13.8% walk rate) than he’s striking out (10.2% strikeout rate), leading to an ugly 6.47 FIP and 1.68 WHIP.

That’s a continuation of struggles against lefties as he allowed them to slash .365/.421/.539 a year ago.

Corbin Carroll has a 159 wRC+ against right-handed pitchers with a robust .257/.336/.619 slash line, so he’s poised to do damage in this matchup.

The 24-year-old outfielder is 5-for-10 against Vasquez in his career and shouldn’t have much trouble adding to that tally.

Diamondbacks vs Padres same-game parlay (SGP)

Corbin Carroll Over 1.5 total bases

Josh Naylor Over 1.5 total bases

Over 8.5

Josh Naylor mashes RHP with a 147 wRC+ and .317/.385/.509 slash line, so he also stands to benefit from a matchup against Vasquez.

The Diamondbacks are starting Eduardo Rodriguez, and that’s meant one thing this season — play the Over. Arizona is 10-2 O/U across the veteran southpaw’s last 12 starts, and San Diego hits better against lefties.

Diamondbacks vs Padres odds

Diamondbacks vs Padres live odds

Diamondbacks vs Padres opening odds

  • Moneyline: Arizona +120 | San Diego -140
  • Run line: Arizona +1.5 (-180) | San Diego -1.5 (+150)
  • Over/Under: Over 7.5 | Under 7.5

Diamondbacks vs Padres trend

The Diamondbacks have cashed the Over in 10 of the last 12 games in which Eduardo Rodriguez has been the starting pitcher. Find more MLB betting trends for Padres vs. Diamondbacks.

How to watch Diamondbacks vs Padres and game info

Location PETCO Park, San Diego, CA
Date Thursday, 7-10-2025
First pitch 9:40 p.m. ET
TV MLBN
Diamondbacks starting pitcher Eduardo Rodriguez
(3-5, 5.78 ERA)
Padres starting pitcher Randy Vasquez
(3-4, 3.79 ERA)

Diamondbacks vs Padres latest injuries

Diamondbacks vs Padres weather

Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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JD Yonke
Betting Analyst

JD is a diehard college football fan with five years of experience writing betting and fantasy content for publications such as SportsGrid, Fantasy Points, Fantrax, and Devy Watch. An avid reader, he uses his inclination to look at things with an exhausting and in-depth, analytic viewpoint combined with a love for statistics and metrics to form a well-rounded handicapping approach.

e's an integral member of the niche (but growing!) college fantasy football community, twice traveling to Canton, OH for the Fantasy Football Expo as a member of the CFF King's Classic drafting squad. His specialization in college football DFS and prop betting taught him that there are exploitable markets to be found and that narrowing your focus is integral to being a profitable bettor.

A lifelong Californian who grew up playing baseball, basketball, football, and lacrosse, he's glad to share a passionate love for sports with this wonderful community.

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