The New York Yankees picked up their third straight win last night — their first three-game streak in over a month — and now they’re eyeing a series sweep against the Seattle Mariners.
Seattle holds the edge on the mound tonight, so a clean sweep won't come easy for New York. Still, we’ve found value in the prop market that’s worth a closer look.
My Mariners vs. Yankees predictions break it down here as I bring you my MLB picks when the two teams meet Thursday, July 10.
Mariners vs Yankees prediction
My Mariners vs Yankees best bet: Aaron Judge Over 1.5 bases (-115 at bet365)
Bryan Woo has an Aaron Judge problem.
Many starting pitchers do, but it’s more pronounced for Woo given his quality and the historical success that Judge has had against him.
In eight at-bats against Woo, Judge has four hits, including a double, and a slugging percentage that exceeds .500. In addition to this, the expected averages against Woo line up pretty nicely for Judge in those at-bats, with an expected batting average setting at .390.
A look under the hood makes me feel that it’s more than just some small sample size luck, and I’m grabbing a hot Judge to exceed 1.5 bases tonight as my best bet.
There aren’t many cracks in Woo’s game, but the spots where he is vulnerable are the spots that Judge excels. Woo has a barrel rate in the bottom 30th percentile of baseball; we know all about Judge’s exploits in this regard. In addition to that, Woo is primarily a two-pitch thrower, with the fastball and sinker making up nearly 70% of his arsenal.
Judge leads the New York Yankees in batting average, wOBA, slugging, and hard-hit rate against both of those pitchers. Today is a good base for a pitcher to see a bad matchup. I’d play this down to my fair price of -133.
Mariners vs Yankees same-game parlay (SGP)
Aaron Judge Over 1.5 bases
Mariners +1.5
Over 9.5
With Marcus Stroman on the mound, two things are true: The Seattle Mariners have a decisive pitching mismatch, and we should expect plenty of runs. I looked to capture that in this same-game parlay.
If the Yankees win tonight, it isn’t easy to see them doing it by much. Yes, the highest barrel rate team in the league will likely experience some success against Woo and address the issues mentioned above in that department.
However, it’s hard to have much confidence in Yankees hurler Marcus Stroman to keep a strong contact Mariners team in check.
Mariners vs Yankees odds
Mariners vs Yankees live odds
Mariners vs Yankees opening odds
- Moneyline: Seattle -110 | New York -110
- Run line: Seattle +1.5 (-218) | New York -1.5 (+152)
- Over/Under: Over 9.5 | Under 9.5
Mariners vs Yankees trend
The New York Yankees have hit the Game Total Over in their last 10 games (+10.00 Units / 92% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Mariners vs. Yankees.
How to watch Mariners vs Yankees and game info
| Location | Yankee Stadium, Bronx, NY |
| Date | Thursday, 7-10-2025 |
| First pitch | 7:05 p.m. ET |
| TV | MLBN |
| Mariners starting pitcher | Bryan Woo (8-4, 2.77 ERA) |
| Yankees starting pitcher | Marcus Stroman (1-1, 7.45 ERA) |
Mariners vs Yankees latest injuries
Mariners vs Yankees weather
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
Affiliate Disclosure: Our team of experts has thoroughly researched and handpicked each product that appears on our website. We may receive compensation if you sign up through our links.
