Bad beat alert: Taijuan Walker struck out the last batter he faced on Tuesday, turning yesterday's MLB player props into a 1-2 SU loss.
Luckily, today's loaded slate offers plenty of value to target.
Here are my three favorite MLB picks for Wednesday, July 9.
Josh's best starting pitcher props for July 9
Cease o2.5 earned runs (+130 at DraftKings)
Evans u1.5 walks allowed (+155 at bet365)
Hendricks u17.5 outs (-110 at bet365)
Today's SP best bets
Diamondbacks vs. Padres
The angle: Cease's long leash and poor form are great for this market.
The move: Dylan Cease Over 2.5 earned runs (+130 at DraftKings)
THE BAT is projecting 17 outs and about 2.5 earned runs. I’d buy this prop to +120 but then would jump on the Under 17.5 outs at the better price.
Dylan Cease has given up three runs in seven of his last nine starts, and his 100+ pitch leash means he has plenty of opportunities to give up runs. The San Diego Padres starter faces a tough challenge against the Arizona Diamondbacks, especially with Corbin Carroll back in the lineup.
The right-hander has gone 5-2 to the Under 17.5 outs since the end of May and is struggling to recapture his form from years past. He’s been a profitable pitcher to fade this season, and the plus-money prices are something I'm pouncing on.
Mariners vs. Yankees
The angle: It's a giant price for a pitcher with a short workload.
The move: Logan Evans Under 1.5 walks allowed (+155 at bet365)
With a price like this, I was expecting a much uglier game log from Seattle Mariners hurler Logan Evans, who THE BAT projects for Under 80 pitches.
Evans has hit this Under in four of his last five starts with Seattle and compiled only 12 walks across 41+ innings in the minors this year. Of his 17 total starts across Triple-A and the majors, the right-hander has issued 25 walks in 87+ innings.
He’s averaging 88 pitches per game for the Mariners and is pitching on an extra day of rest. Five innings and one walk is a very comfortable projection here, with THE BAT projecting 1.7 walks, and this is one of the best Under BBA props on the board.
Yes, it’s the New York Yankees, but Evans might not see Aaron Judge a third time through the order. I love these big plus-money walk props at 1.5.
Rangers vs. Angels
The angle: Below-average pitcher with a very questionable leash.
The move: Kyle Hendricks Under 17.5 outs (-110 at bet365)
I’m buying this to -125 and would even take u16.5 to +100.
Kyle Hendricks is a pitcher who could throw as few as 69 pitches. His last three starts have gone for 82, 74, and 69 pitches while posting a 4.11 ERA with a 9:1 K:BB rate.
THE BAT is projecting 86 pitches from the Los Angeles Angels veteran, but that is likely closer to his limit than his floor. Hendricks is also playing a divisional opponent in the Texas Rangers, so there is a better chance that a high-leverage arm comes in if the righty is in trouble in the fifth or sixth inning.
It’s also expected to be a hot and humid day at Angel Stadium with decent wind blowing out, so fade Hendricks tonight.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
Affiliate Disclosure: Our team of experts has thoroughly researched and handpicked each product that appears on our website. We may receive compensation if you sign up through our links.
