Best NRFI Bets Today - Saturday, July 5

Today's MLB slate features some interesting home/road splits that have played a decisive role in our expert MLB NRFI/YFRI picks for Saturday's MLB action.

Rohit Ponnaiya - Betting Analyst at Covers.com
Rohit Ponnaiya • Betting Analyst
Jul 5, 2025 • 11:18 ET • 4 min read
Patrick Corbin of the Texas Rangers
Photo By - Imagn Images. Patrick Corbin of the Texas Rangers.

The Seattle Mariners have some of the most extreme home/away hitting splits in recent memory.

That, combined with the weak-hitting Pirates coming to town, has me betting on no runs to be scored in the first inning of their clash on Saturday night.

My MLB picks for today are also betting on low-scoring starts in Miami and San Diego.

Here are my best free YRFI and NRFI bets for Saturday, July 5.

Best NRFI/YRFI bets today

  • TEAM Brewers vs Marlins Marlins: NRFI
  • Rangers Rangers vs Padres Padres: NRFI
  • Pirates Pirates vs Mariners Mariners: NRFI

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NRFI/YRFI bets for July 5

Brewers at Marlins: NRFI (-110 at ProphetX)

Both of these teams are mediocre at the dish, and there will be a 16 mph breeze blowing towards the infield at loanDepot Park today.

The Milwaukee Brewers are 21st in the majors in slugging percentage (.382) while ranking 26th in run first inning percentage (23.9%). Meanwhile, the Miami Marlins slug just .372 at home — the sixth-lowest number in the majors. 

Milwaukee will send rookie Chad Patrick to the hill tonight, and he has a solid 3.51 ERA in 17 starts. Marlins righty Cal Quantrill has struggled, but he's been reliable in the opening frame, where he has posted a 1.69 ERA with an OBA of .207.

  • Time: 4:10 p.m. ET
  • Where to watch
    Marlins - FanDuel Sports Network Florida
    Brewers - FanDuel Sports Network Wisconsin
  • Bet: NRFI

Rangers at Padres: NRFI (-107 at ProphetX)

The Texas Rangers are just 28th in the majors in OPS (.660), and tonight they'll be on the road at pitcher-friendly PETCO Park. 

Texas is starting Patrick Corbin, who is mediocre but tends to get off to good starts. The veteran has a 1.20 ERA with an OBA of .140 in the first inning.

Meanwhile, the San Diego Padres have an OPS of just .652 against lefties, and they've gone ice-cold at the dish. They are batting .214 while plating 3.17 runs per game over the last 15 days. 

  • Time: 9:40 p.m. ET
  • Where to watch
    Padres - Padres Television Network Presented by UC San Diego Health
    Rangers - Rangers Sports Network, Victory+
    National - MLBN (out-of-market only)
  • Bet: NRFI

Pirates at Mariners: NRFI (-120 at ProphetX)

The Seattle Mariners lead the majors in run first-inning rate (45.5%) and have an OPS of .769 on the road. However, they rank 26th in run first inning rate (20.5%) with an OPS of .687 at pitcher-friendly T-Mobile Park. 

Today, they host the Pittsburgh Pirates, who have an MLB-worst OPS of .600 on the road. They'll have a tough time generating offense against M's starter, Luis Castillo. The three-time All-Star has a 2.60 ERA with an OBA of .196 at home. 

The Buccos respond with rookie Mike Burrows. Burrows struggled in his first two starts of the year but has shown improvement, posting a 2.73 ERA across six starts in June. 

  • Time: 10:10 p.m. ET
  • Where to watch
    Mariners - ROOTNW
    Pirates - SportsNet-PIT
    National - FS1
  • Bet: NRFI

Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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Rohit Ponnaiya
Betting Analyst

With a background playing soccer, rugby, and boxing, combined with a journalism degree, it's little surprise that Rohit gravitated towards the world of sports betting. He specializes in betting on UFC and college basketball, two sports where the eyeball test can tell you a lot more about matchups than any analytics. Rohit has years of experience handicapping NFL and NBA games as well as niche betting markets such as politics and Oscar odds. He's also the resident CFL expert and formerly hosted "The Chez and Ro Show" with former CFL star Davis Sanchez. You can catch Rohit breaking down every UFC event with Joe Osborne on "P4P Picks" on the Covers YouTube channel and he also has regular appearances on "Before You Bet" with Joe. In addition, he's a regular guest on "By The Book" on the Monumental Sports Network and makes guest appearances on VSIN's "The Handle" and CBS Sports. Rohit primarily makes his bets at bet365, which offers a wide variety of prop markets, but also has accounts at several others so he can shop around for the best prices. For Rohit, bankroll management is key. He believes you should never bet what you can't afford to lose and maximize those few betting opportunities where books misprice a line.

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