Today’s MLB player props analysis will highlight Aaron Judge in the Subway Series and Kyle Schwarber as the Philadelphia Phillies host the Cincinnati Reds.
I’ll also include Chicago Cubs slugger Seiya Suzuki.
Best MLB home run props today
Aaron Judge (+225)
Kyle Schwarber (+255)
Seiya Suzuki (+220)- 💲 +3592 parlay💲
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HR picks for July 5
Aaron Judge (+225 at DraftKings)
Aaron Judge continues to show why he’s one of the very best in the big leagues. The superstar is up to 32 home runs on the year and has gone deep twice in his last three games. That includes a long ball on Friday in the series opener of the Subway Series against the New York Mets. Judge left the yard on Wednesday against the Toronto Blue Jays as well.
Today, he’ll face former teammate Frankie Montas. While Judge is just 2-for-10 lifetime against Montas, he’s hot right now and has slugged 22 home runs off right-handed hurlers to go along with a .372 average.
By no surprise, Judge also sees the ball well in afternoon games, smacking 15 bombs. He’s hitting over .300 versus the Mets this year, and it wouldn’t surprise me if Judge kept his power surge going here.
Kyle Schwarber (+255 at DraftKings)
Kyle Schwarber has big-time power, and he showcases it every single season. 2025 has been no different. The veteran has 26 home runs and 60 RBIs for the Philadelphia Phillies, who are a serious contender once again. He has one bomb in his last three games, putting one in the bleachers earlier this week against the San Diego Padres.
The 32-year-old is up against Cincinnati Reds starter Nick Lodolo this afternoon. He’s had trouble with the long ball at times, allowing 13 of them in 17 starts. Schwarber, meanwhile, is 2-for-10 lifetime against Lodolo with one homer.
14 of his bombs are off righties, and Schwarber’s power plays nicely at Citizens Bank Park, going deep 13 times at home this season. Schwarber could get a hold of one here in the second game of the series.
Seiya Suzuki (+220 at DraftKings)
The Cubbies are no joke and they have quite the offense. Seiya Suzuki is easily one of their most dangerous hitters, batting .261 with 24 home runs and 74 RBIs so far. He’s already surpassed last year’s HR total and we’re not even at the All-Star break.
Suzuki went deep in Friday’s huge 11-3 win over the St. Louis Cardinals, his third bomb in the last six contests. Suzuki has raked against lefties with a .300 average and eight homers and he’ll face one today in Matthew Liberatore.
While he’s just 1-for-6 lifetime versus the southpaw, Suzuki is swinging the bat with boatloads of confidence at the moment. 10 of his bombs have came at Wrigley Field as well and Chicago will host the Cards.
Today’s HR parlay
Aaron Judge HR
Kyle Schwarber HR
Seiya Suzuki HR
Today’s most popular HR bets
- Aaron Judge, Yankees
- James Wood, Nationals
- Shohei Ohtani, Dodgers
Betting info courtesy of DraftKings
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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