It’s Fourth of July weekend, and the MLB is celebrating with 15 games and all 30 teams in action.
I’ve broken down my three favorite player props for the day, which include Trevor Story and Bobby Witt Jr. continuing to rack up some bases, while I’m not expecting Carlos Rodon to record many Ks against a disciplined Mets squad.
Keep reading for my best MLB player props for Saturday, July 5.
Best MLB player props today
Trevor Story Over 1.5 total bases (+130)
Carlos Rodon Under 5.5 strikeouts (+138)
Bobby Witt Jr. Over 1.5 total bases (-125)
Our 3 best MLB player props for Saturday, July 5
Trevor Story Over 1.5 total bases (+130 at bet365)
The Boston Red Sox have been sliding down the AL East standings, but Trevor Story is trending in the exact opposite direction.
The shortstop is fresh off a four-hit game against the Nationals on July 4, where he also recorded a home run, four RBI, and seven total bases. It’s been a scorching hot week at the plate for Story, who has recorded 2+ total bases in four straight and five of his last six outings.
His 11 hits over the last week are also the second most in the majors behind only Jasson Dominguez of the Yankees, who has 12.
It should be a favorable matchup this afternoon for Story and the Red Sox as well, as Mitchell Parker takes the mound for the Washington Nationals. The right-hander owns a bloated 4.63 ERA and a 1.35 WHIP while allowing 6+ hits in four straight starts.
- Time: 4:05 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: NESN, MASN
Carlos Rodon Under 5.5 strikeouts (+138 at FanDuel)
Make no mistake, Carlos Rodon is having a great season for the New York Yankees. The 32-year-old owns a solid 2.95 ERA while his 123 strikeouts are the fourth-most among all AL pitchers.
The veteran has shown some signs of slowing down, however, which is why I’m fading the strikeout line this afternoon.
June was statistically Rodon’s worst month of the season as he posted a 3.71 ERA and a 1.15 WHIP over six starts. We also saw him record just 33 Ks in those six games – he had 38 in five starts in April and 45 in six in March.
The southpaw has been Under 5.5 Ks in four of his last five starts and hasn’t pitched beyond the sixth inning in any of those games either.
The New York Mets are one of the most disciplined teams in the MLB, striking out just 7.81 times per game (8th), so I don’t see Rodon getting a ton of punchouts if he has another relatively short outing.
- Time: 4:10 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: YES, SNY, FS1
Bobby Witt Jr. Over 1.5 total bases (-125 at Caesars)
Bobby Witt Jr. looks to continue his sizzling season as he brings an eight-game hit streak into this afternoon’s contest.
The Kansas City Royals shortstop had a very productive Fourth of July as he snagged three hits, an RBI, and three total bases in the series opener vs. the Arizona Diamondbacks.
Witt has recorded 2+ total bases in six of his last eight ballgames, while he’s one of eight players in the majors with 10+ hits over the past week.
He’ll be facing Diamondbacks right-hander Ryne Nelson, who’s putting together a decent season with a 3.61 ERA and a 1.02 WHIP.
The right-handed Witt has hit more consistently vs. left-handed pitching (.343 BA vs. LHP; .282 BA vs. RHP), but he’s shown more pop against righties with a .493 slugging percentage (.478 SLG vs. LHP).
It should also help Witt’s case that the Diamondbacks own the third-worst bullpen ERA in the majors (5.18), so once he gets through Nelson, he’ll have an even easier time getting on base.
- Time: 4:10 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: Dbacks.TV, FanDuel Sports Network Kansas City
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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