The St. Louis Cardinals face off against the Chicago Cubs on Saturday afternoon. While I expect Chicago to have success at the plate, my Cardinals vs. Cubs predictions are backing St. Louis starter Matthew Liberatore on a prop that looks mispriced.
Here are my best free MLB picks for NL Central showdown on July 5.
Cardinals vs Cubs prediction
My Cardinals vs Cubs best bet: Matthew Liberatore Under 1.5 walks (-140 at bet365)
The St. Louis Cardinals will send Matthew Liberatore to the hill for today's showdown against the Chicago Cubs. The lefty has a 3.70 ERA with an OBA of .252 through 16 starts.
In Liberatore's last outing, he allowed just three hits across six innings of shutout ball. However, he also walked five batters which is shocking when you consider that he has issued more than 1.5 walks in just two of 16 starts this year.
Liberatore is in the top fifth percentile in walk rate (4.5%) while the Cubs are 11th in walk rate (8.6%) against southpaws.
That said, Liberatore is also in the bottom 15th percentile in average exit velocity and the bottom 25th percentile in hard hit rate. That's bad news against a hard-hitting Cubs lineup, especially with the wind blowing towards the outfield at 15 mph today.
Expect Liberatore to either put together a solid start and display his excellent control or get lit up and pulled early — which is also conducive for going below his 1.5 walks prop.
Cardinals vs Cubs same-game parlay (SGP)
Matthew Liberatore Under 1.5 walks
Cubs Team Total Over 5.5
Seiya Suzuki Over 1.5 total bases
The Cubs won 11-3 yesterday afternoon and they've been an offensive juggernaut this year. They are tied for third in the majors in OPS (.775) and are second in runs per game (5.40).
That combined with the stiff winds blowing towards the outfield at Wrigley today, have me backing the Over on their team total.
That wind also has me backing Cubs outfielder Seiya Suzuki who is fifth in the majors in total bases (186) and ninth in slugging percentage (.552) total bases. He also slugs .611 with the platoon advantage which he will have against Liberatore today.
Cardinals vs Cubs odds
Cardinals vs Cubs live odds
Cardinals vs Cubs opening odds
- Moneyline: St. Louis +100 | Chicago -120
- Run line: St. Louis +1.5 (-200) | Chicago -1.5 (+165)
- Over/Under: Over 10.5 (-120) | Under 10.5 (+100)
Cardinals vs Cubs trend
The Cubs are 16-5 in their last 21 games at home. Find more MLB betting trends for Cardinals vs. Cubs.
How to watch Cardinals vs Cubs and game info
| Location | Wrigley Field, Chicago, Illinois |
| Date | Saturday, 7-5-2025 |
| First pitch | 2:20 p.m. ET |
| TV | FDSNMW, MARQ |
| Cardinals starting pitcher | Matthew Liberatore (6-6, 3.70 ERA) |
| Cubs starting pitcher | Jameson Taillon (7-6, 4.44 ERA) |
Cardinals vs Cubs latest injuries
Cardinals vs Cubs weather
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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