Diamondbacks vs Padres Prediction, Picks & Odds — Wednesday, July 9

Our MLB betting picks believe Dylan Cease's second-half turnaround begins on Wednesday night.

Andrew Caley - Senior Betting Analyst at Covers.com
Andrew Caley • Senior Betting Analyst
Jul 9, 2025 • 14:14 ET • 4 min read
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This article contains predictions for an old game!

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San Diego Padres MLB Dylan Cease
Photo By - Imagn Images. San Diego Padres SP Dylan Cease throws a pitch.

The Arizona Diamondbacks and the San Diego Padres have split the first two games of their big four-game set, but it’s the D-backs who have a big pitching edge heading into Game 3.

My Diamondbacks vs. Padres predictions explain why San Diego starter Dylan Cease will mow down the competition tonight.

I’ve got the MLB picks you need for this National League West showdown with first pitch at PETCO Park in San Diego slated to go at 9:40 pm ET on Wednesday, July 9.

Diamondbacks vs Padres prediction

My Diamondbacks vs Padres best bet: Dylan Cease to record the win (+150 at bet365)

It hasn’t been the best first half for San Diego Padres starter Dylan Cease. The strikeout artist enters tonight’s game against the Arizona Diamondbacks with a 4.62 ERA.

That said, I like him to head into the All-Star break on a high note.

Cease has been a little unlucky this season. His expected ERA sits at 3.52 while his opponent's expected batting average is .233. Both are well above league average. He's still racking up the Ks, sitting in the Top 12% in strikeout rate.

The right-hander has also had loads of success against this D-backs lineup in the past. Current Arizona hitters have combined for a .198 xBA, a .298 xSLG, and a 26% K-rate.

Meanwhile, the D-backs counter Cease with Brandon Pfaadt, who is in the conversation for “Worst Starter in the Big Leagues” this season. The 26-year-old right-hander ranks in the Bottom 1% among MLB pitchers in both xERA and xBA.

The Padres' lineup can be inconsistent at times, but they have more than enough talent to take advantage of this matchup and have a .295 xBA vs. Pfaadt.

The Padres will jump on Pfaadt to build and early lead, and Cease will do enough to earn the win, making the +150 price tag too good to pass up.

Diamondbacks vs Padres same-game parlay (SGP)

Dylan Cease to record the win

Josh Naylor Under 0.5 hits

Luis Arraez 2+ hits

The Diamondbacks player most unhappy to see Cease on the mound has got to be Josh Naylor

Naylor has faced Cease a bunch from their respective times in the American League Central, and Cease has definitely had Naylor’s number.

The Arizona slugger is 6-for-23 in his career vs. the Padres hurler. That’s good for a .169 xBA and a .226 xSLG. So, give me Under 0.5 hits for Naylor tonight.

On the other hand, Luis Arraez is pumped to see Pfaadt.

The former hitting champ is a ridiculous 10-for-16 in his career vs. Pfaadt and is starting to look like his old self, hitting .373 over his last 13 games, including six multi-hit games. Let’s make it another multi-hit game for Arraez with this great matchup.

Diamondbacks vs Padres odds

Diamondbacks vs Padres live odds

Diamondbacks vs Padres opening odds

  • Moneyline: Arizona +100 | San Diego -120
  • Run line: Arizona +1.5 (-200) | San Diego -1.5 (+165)
  • Over/Under: Over 8 (-105) | Under 8 (-115)

Diamondbacks vs Padres trend

The Diamondbacks have only hit the team total Over in 12 of their last 34 away games for -12.30 Units and a -31% ROI. Find more MLB betting trends for Diamondbacks vs. Padres.

How to watch Diamondbacks vs Padres and game info

Location PETCO Park, San Diego, CA
Date Wednesday, 7-9-2025
First pitch 9:40 p.m. ET
TV DBACKS.tv, PADRES.tv
Diamondbacks starting pitcher Brandon Pfaadt
(8-6, 5.42 ERA)
Padres starting pitcher Dylan Cease
(3-8, 4.62 ERA)

Diamondbacks vs Padres latest injuries

Diamondbacks vs Padres weather

Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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Andrew Caley
Senior Betting Analyst

When his dreams of becoming the next Steve Nash died, all Andrew "Taco" Caley wanted to do was write about sports, something he's been doing at Covers for more than a decade. A Journalism School grad from Holland College in Charlottetown, PEI, Andrew previously worked at The Chronicle Herald and Star Metro, but knew in his heart that his future lay in sports. He began at Covers as a news editor and has now done everything under the sun when it comes to content. His work has been seen on TSN, Sportsnet, VSiN, and CBS. These days Andrew's betting expertise is focused on his favorite teams; the Toronto Blue Jays and Toronto Raptors. He's also an avid college football fan and bettor. He can't be friends with you if you don't appreciate a Service Academy Under. You can also call him Covers Sixth Man, as he regularly steps up to guest host Before You Bet and our MLB and NCAAF release shows. The sportsbook where he does the bulk of his betting is bet365 thanks to its numerous prop betting options and competitive odds. His best advice? Find the balance between the numbers and what you see on the playing field. Then find the best price using multiple books. And don’t ask him where the nickname Taco comes from. It's not an interesting story. Seriously.<

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