The Arizona Diamondbacks and the San Diego Padres have split the first two games of their big four-game set, but it’s the D-backs who have a big pitching edge heading into Game 3.
My Diamondbacks vs. Padres predictions explain why San Diego starter Dylan Cease will mow down the competition tonight.
I’ve got the MLB picks you need for this National League West showdown with first pitch at PETCO Park in San Diego slated to go at 9:40 pm ET on Wednesday, July 9.
Diamondbacks vs Padres prediction
My Diamondbacks vs Padres best bet: Dylan Cease to record the win (+150 at bet365)
It hasn’t been the best first half for San Diego Padres starter Dylan Cease. The strikeout artist enters tonight’s game against the Arizona Diamondbacks with a 4.62 ERA.
That said, I like him to head into the All-Star break on a high note.
Cease has been a little unlucky this season. His expected ERA sits at 3.52 while his opponent's expected batting average is .233. Both are well above league average. He's still racking up the Ks, sitting in the Top 12% in strikeout rate.
The right-hander has also had loads of success against this D-backs lineup in the past. Current Arizona hitters have combined for a .198 xBA, a .298 xSLG, and a 26% K-rate.
Meanwhile, the D-backs counter Cease with Brandon Pfaadt, who is in the conversation for “Worst Starter in the Big Leagues” this season. The 26-year-old right-hander ranks in the Bottom 1% among MLB pitchers in both xERA and xBA.
The Padres' lineup can be inconsistent at times, but they have more than enough talent to take advantage of this matchup and have a .295 xBA vs. Pfaadt.
The Padres will jump on Pfaadt to build and early lead, and Cease will do enough to earn the win, making the +150 price tag too good to pass up.
Diamondbacks vs Padres same-game parlay (SGP)
Dylan Cease to record the win
Josh Naylor Under 0.5 hits
Luis Arraez 2+ hits
The Diamondbacks player most unhappy to see Cease on the mound has got to be Josh Naylor.
Naylor has faced Cease a bunch from their respective times in the American League Central, and Cease has definitely had Naylor’s number.
The Arizona slugger is 6-for-23 in his career vs. the Padres hurler. That’s good for a .169 xBA and a .226 xSLG. So, give me Under 0.5 hits for Naylor tonight.
On the other hand, Luis Arraez is pumped to see Pfaadt.
The former hitting champ is a ridiculous 10-for-16 in his career vs. Pfaadt and is starting to look like his old self, hitting .373 over his last 13 games, including six multi-hit games. Let’s make it another multi-hit game for Arraez with this great matchup.
Diamondbacks vs Padres odds
Diamondbacks vs Padres live odds
Diamondbacks vs Padres opening odds
- Moneyline: Arizona +100 | San Diego -120
- Run line: Arizona +1.5 (-200) | San Diego -1.5 (+165)
- Over/Under: Over 8 (-105) | Under 8 (-115)
Diamondbacks vs Padres trend
The Diamondbacks have only hit the team total Over in 12 of their last 34 away games for -12.30 Units and a -31% ROI. Find more MLB betting trends for Diamondbacks vs. Padres.
How to watch Diamondbacks vs Padres and game info
| Location | PETCO Park, San Diego, CA |
| Date | Wednesday, 7-9-2025 |
| First pitch | 9:40 p.m. ET |
| TV | DBACKS.tv, PADRES.tv |
| Diamondbacks starting pitcher | Brandon Pfaadt (8-6, 5.42 ERA) |
| Padres starting pitcher | Dylan Cease (3-8, 4.62 ERA) |
Diamondbacks vs Padres latest injuries
Diamondbacks vs Padres weather
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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