After a big win last night, the New York Yankees will look to build momentum as they take on the Seattle Mariners again tonight.
Surprisingly, it’s been nearly a month since the Yankees last won three games in a row. With their offense starting to click, they’re in a strong spot to change that.
Here are my Mariners vs. Yankees predictions and MLB picks for Wednesday, July 9.
Mariners vs Yankees prediction
My Mariners vs Yankees best bet: Yankees team total Over 4.5 (-140 at DraftKings)
A rookie making his Yankee Stadium debut against a New York Yankees team that may have just suddenly found it again? I've seen this story before, and it usually unfolds in a certain way. I'm grabbing the Yankees team total Over 4.5 as my best bet.
Logan Evans has a barrel rate problem. He ranks in the Bottom 35th percentile in the majors, allowing a barreled ball almost 10% of the time. That's an issue against the Yankees.
We discussed this extensively early in the season when New York was rolling, but then some poor play, unfavorable matchups, and regression caught up to them. I'm buying stock that's starting to shift back to what we saw early in the year.
The Bronx Bombers have been a mainstay in the Top 5 of the majors in barrel rate, and lately, they've started to expand that gap at the top due to their play. Coming into this game, the Yankees have a barrel rate of 11.6%. The next closest are the Angels at 10.8%.
That may not seem like much, but when you consider that the gap between first and second is the same as it is between second and seventh, then it becomes clearer how dominant New York has been in this metric.
What's even more noticeable is what I mentioned initially: New York has now grabbed back-to-back wins after a relatively poor slump, but they've shown signs of breaking out lately (even during some of the losses) due to their performance at the plate. Over the last five games, the Yankees have posted an average barrel rate of around 15%. They can lean on this, overpower Evans, and easily cash the number.
I projected 5.2 runs today and would play this to around -160 because of that.
Mariners vs Yankees same-game parlay (SGP)
Yankees team total Over 4.5
Aaron Judge to hit a home run
Cam Schlittler Over 4.5 strikeouts
Given the aforementioned barrel rate issues, we're taking Aaron Judge to go deep. Not only does he have the best barrel rate amongst Yankees hitters, he also leads the team in hard-hit rate against Evans' two primary pitches, the cutter and sweeper.
We finished things off by taking the rookie hurler making his major league debut to exceed 4.5 strikeouts. His slider has shown its electricity in the minors, producing a strikeout rate of over 30% and there are plenty of hitters in the Mariners lineup that struggle against breaking pitches.
Mariners vs Yankees odds
Mariners vs Yankees live odds
Mariners vs Yankees opening odds
- Moneyline: Seattle +103 | New York -142
- Run line: Seattle +1.5 (-185) | New York -1.5 (+155)
- Over/Under: Over 9 | Under 9
Mariners vs Yankees trend
The Mariners have cashed the Over in 11 of their last 17 away games (+5.70 units / 31% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Mariners vs. Yankees.
How to watch Mariners vs Yankees and game info
| Location | Yankee Stadium, Bronx, NY |
| Date | Wednesday, 7-9-2025 |
| First pitch | 7:05 p.m. ET |
| TV | Prime Video |
| Mariners starting pitcher | Logan Evans (3-2, 2.96 ERA) |
| Yankees starting pitcher | Cam Schlittler (0-0, 0.00 ERA) |
Mariners vs Yankees latest injuries
Mariners vs Yankees weather
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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