The Arizona Diamondbacks have plenty of work ahead to climb into a Wild Card spot, but Corbin Carroll is back from a wrist fracture, and there’s a series decider on deck today at Chase Field against the Kansas City Royals.
Randal Grichuk’s two-run homer put the finishing touches on Arizona’s 7-1 victory yesterday, and my Royals vs. Diamondbacks predictions signal another productive day at the plate for the hosts.
Read on for my MLB picks ahead of this July 6 rubber match.
Royals vs Diamondbacks prediction
My Royals vs Diamondbacks best bet: Diamondbacks F5 -0.5 (-105 at Caesars)
It’s been a tough grind for the Arizona Diamondbacks this year in the ultra-competitive NL West, but they start the day just 3.5 games outside the final National League Wild Card spot.
That’s reason for optimism, despite a 3-7 mark across their last 10 contests, and I see the D-Backs jumping all over Kansas City Royals starter Michael Lorenzen this afternoon.
While Arizona’s 44-45 record doesn’t scream “top-tier offense,” there are slugging threats up and down the lineup. The D-Backs sit third in the majors in runs (454) and fourth in home runs (131), and that spells trouble for Lorenzen, who’s posted a 4.95 ERA and a 1.37 WHIP this season. The righty has allowed 3+ earned runs in five of his past seven outings.
Arizona has won four of the last six matchups between these teams, and I’m taking the hosts to nail this F5 innings prop. That’s been a winning ticket in 45 of the D-Backs’ last 73 games.
It’s set up to be a bullpen day for Arizona, starting with Anthony DeSclafani, and that revolving door of relievers could help keep the Royals’ hitters off-balance. Ultimately, though, this pick is all about an explosive D-Backs offense that averages 5.18 RPG.
I like this price for a fast start from Corbin Carroll, Josh Naylor & Co. as they try to narrow the gap in the Wild Card chase.
Caesars QuickPick: Our Royals vs Diamondbacks same-game parlay (SGP)
Diamondbacks F5 -0.5
Lourdes Gurriel Jr. Over 1.5 total bases
Over 9.5
Lourdes Gurriel Jr. came through for Arizona with a double and a triple yesterday, stretching his hit streak to seven games, and the Over on 1.5 total bases is a must-have prop for today’s clash. He’s clubbed 13 of his 17 doubles off righties this year.
I’ll also take the Over on 9.5, with the D-Backs hitting the Over in 24 of their last 35 games and cashing the team total Over in 25 of their past 39 contests at Chase Field. It’s a different story for Kansas City, but the visitors flashed some upside with a 9-3 victory in the series opener.
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Royals vs Diamondbacks odds
Royals vs Diamondbacks live odds
Royals vs Diamondbacks opening odds
- Moneyline: Kansas City +112 | Arizona -123
- Run line: Kansas City +1.5 | Arizona -1.5
- Over/Under: Over 9.5 | Under 9.5
Odds courtesy of Caesars.
Royals vs Diamondbacks trend
The Royals are 18-32 in their last 50 games. Find more MLB betting trends for Royals vs. Diamondbacks.
How to watch Royals vs Diamondbacks and game info
| Location | Chase Field, Phoenix, AZ |
| Date | Sunday, 7-6-2025 |
| First pitch | 4:10 p.m. ET |
| TV | FDSN Kansas City, Dbacks.TV |
| Royals starting pitcher | Michael Lorenzen (4-8, 4.95 ERA) |
| Diamondbacks starting pitcher | Anthony DeSclafani (0-0, 4.82 ERA) |
Royals vs Diamondbacks latest injuries
Royals vs Diamondbacks weather
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
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