The New York Yankees have dropped six consecutive games and seen their lead on the AL East completely slip away, now trailing the Toronto Blue Jays by three games.
But my Yankees vs. Mets predictions expect the road team — led by Aaron Judge and Max Fried — to take advantage of a big pitching edge and avoid a sweep in the Subway Series.
Let’s break it all down with my MLB picks for Sunday, July 6.
Yankees vs Mets prediction
My Yankees vs Mets best bet: Aaron Judge Over 1.5 total bases (-120 at Caesars)
Aaron Judge has recorded at least two total bases at a whopping 60% rate this season, averaging 2.7 per game. That’s a truly wild output given how effectively he draws free passes, be it intentional or not.
His numbers are actually better on the road than at home. He averages 2.8 bases in away games compared to 2.6 at Yankee Stadium.
Judge has shown unbelievable consistency along the way. He has only gone back-to-back road games without going over this number twice since the middle of April — and he didn’t manage a hit Saturday.
He’s in a great position to bounce back Sunday against the New York Mets. They are very thin in the rotation now and going with a bullpen game in the series finale. That’s unlikely to lead to success against Judge.
While the Mets’ bullpen was very good early, it hasn’t been of late. They own a 5.30 bullpen ERA since June 1, which is third-worst in the majors. Expect Judge to take advantage.
Caesars QuickPick: Our Yankees vs Mets same-game parlay (SGP)
Aaron Judge Over 1.5 total bases
Giancarlo Stanton Over 0.5 RBI
Juan Soto Over 0.5 hits
Yankees -1.5
Giancarlo Stanton has missed a ton of time with injury this season, but it looks like the rust is beginning to shake off. He has tallied six bases over the last five games and driven in five runs along the way.
Juan Soto has 13 hits over his last 10 games and has enjoyed plenty of success against Max Fried in his career, recording eight hits over 25 plate appearances.
Given the New York Yankees' massive pitching advantage, they could win by a healthy margin if Judge and Stanton dish out damage at the plate.
Double your winnings for 10 separate bets at Caesars
Sign up for a Caesars account — using our exclusive promo code BASEBALLDYW — and get 10x profit boost tokens worth 100% each!
Register now to collect your Double your winning tokens, or learn more with our comprehensive Caesars Sportsbook review.
Yankees vs Mets odds
Yankees vs Mets live odds
Yankees vs Mets opening odds
- Moneyline: Yankees -227 | Mets +185
- Run line: Yankees -1.5 | Mets +1.5
- Over/Under: Over 9 | Under 9
Odds courtesy of Caesars.
Yankees vs Mets trend
Aaron Judge has averaged four total bases over his last four road games vs. New York. Find more MLB betting trends for Yankees vs. Mets.
How to watch Yankees vs Mets and game info
| Location | Citi Field, Queens, NY |
| Date | Sunday, 7-6-2025 |
| First pitch | 1:40 p.m. ET |
| TV | YES, SNY |
| Yankees starting pitcher | Max Fried (10-2, 2.13 ERA) |
| Mets starting pitcher | Brandon Waddell (0-0, 2.55 ERA) |
Yankees vs Mets latest injuries
Yankees vs Mets weather
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
Affiliate Disclosure: Our team of experts has thoroughly researched and handpicked each product that appears on our website. We may receive compensation if you sign up through our links.
