Two divisional foes face off on Sunday Night Baseball when the St. Louis Cardinals and Chicago Cubs meet.
In my Sunday Night Baseball player props and Cardinals vs. Cubs predictions for July 6, I see considerable value in a couple of Cubs stars at the plate.
Cardinals vs Cubs Sunday Night Baseball props
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Swanson o0.5 RBI (+159) - Tucker o1.5 TB (+116)
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Fedde u3.5 Ks (+104)
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Cardinals vs Cubs props for Sunday Night Baseball
Dansby Swanson Over 0.5 RBI (+159 at Caesars)
Dansby Swanson is well-positioned to bring home a run tonight, batting in the fourth spot of the lineup.
Swanson profiles well against the breaking ball stuff that St. Louis Cardinals starter Erick Fedde will throw the majority of the time, ranking in the Top 3 in batting average and expected average amongst Cubs against both the slider and cutter.
Both Kyle Tucker and Ian Happ are also poised to take advantage of Fedde and bat ahead of Swanson.
Fedde's had some issues this season with the hard-hit ball, ranking in the Bottom 25% in the majors in hard-hit rate. Nobody has been hitting the ball harder in the Chicago Cubs lineup than those two lately.
Kyle Tucker Over 1.5 total bases (+116 at Caesars)
Bouncing off the Swanson RBI play, I'm also taking Tucker to go Over his base total for the evening. There's a similar line of thinking here.
You don't need me to tell you that Tucker is the best hitter in the Cubs' lineup, but where he excels is against breaking pitches.
He'll come into this game leading Chicago in hard-hit rate against the sinker, the cutter, and the sweeper — all three pitches that Fedde will use. It's no wonder that he has a .374 expected batting average and .807 expected slugging in his five head-to-head meetings with the hurler.
I expect him to continue giving Fedde issues.
Erick Fedde Under 3.5 strikeouts (+104 at Caesars)
As if we haven't picked on Fedde enough, we're going to do it one last time with an Under play on his strikeouts. My fair price on this was around -105, so I'm jumping on anything plus -money.
There are two paths for this to hit. One involves him getting shelled because his aforementioned pitch arsenal is aligned with the strengths of this Cubs team. The other?
Fedde sees his routine volume of pitches at around 93, but struggles to get many swing-and-misses. It would be in keeping with what we've seen from both him and the Cubs this season. It's reflected in the number, but I'm sure it's enough.
Fedde will enter this game with one of the lowest K rates in baseball among starters. The Cubs have made remarkable improvements in this area compared to last season, with a Top-10 chase contact rate and the fourth-lowest whiff rate in the majors.
These two very feasible paths put us in a strong position tonight with this play.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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