The New York Mets host the Pittsburgh Pirates at Citi Field and start a three-game set Monday, May 12.
Pittsburgh has ace Paul Skenes set to start against the rolling New York lineup, and my Pirates vs. Mets predictions and MLB picks expect him to have some hiccups in Flushing Meadows tonight.
Pirates vs Mets prediction
My Pirates vs Mets best bet: Juan Soto Over 0.5 runs scored (-105 at Caesars)
New York Mets outfielder Juan Soto wrapped up the weekend series against the Chicago Cubs with an 0-for-9 skid at the dish. I’m expecting the slump to end tonight, with the five-time Silver Slugger also touching them all and scoring a run.
Soto has run hot and cold to start his tenure with the Mets, and he strung together an 11-for-30 heater with nine runs and a .474 on-base percentage across eight contests prior to the highlighted recent two-game funk.
The Mets have a tough task with Paul Skenes toeing the rubber for the Pittsburgh Pirates. Skenes has cruised through big-league lineups with a 2.18 ERA, 0.95 WHIP, 2.72 xFIP, and dominant 30.8% K-rate across his 31 career starts.
Still, the pitching matchup is built into the price, and Soto has been equally elite with a career .417 wOBA and .989 OPS against right-handed hurlers. Plus, he’s already scored 30 runs across 41 games this year.
Caesars QuickPick: Our Pirates vs Mets same-game parlay (SGP)
Mets -1.5
Paul Skenes 6+ strikeouts
Juan Soto Over 0.5 runs scored
The Mets are sending lefty David Peterson to the hill, and the Pirates pack little punch against southpaws with a 24th-ranked .274 wOBA and 26th-ranked .098 ISO. Pittsburgh also has the third-highest strikeout percentage against lefties and the seventh-lowest walk rate.
Peterson is off to a solid start to 2025, too. He’s posted a .352 ERA and 3.26 xFIP while limiting opposing hitters to a manageable 5.2 barrel percentage.
As noted, Skenes has been a force for the Bucs and has struck out six or more batters in six of eight starts this season and 26 of 31 for his career.
I went with the alternative total because the Mets have the seventh-lowest strikeout percentage against righties, while also ranking sixth in wOBA and fifth in ISO.
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Pirates vs Mets odds
Pirates vs Mets live odds
Pirates vs Mets opening odds
- Moneyline: Pittsburgh +115 | New York -135
- Run line: Pittsburgh +1.5 (-185) | New York -1.5 (+155)
- Over/Under: Over 7.5 (+100) | Under 7.5 (-120)
Odds courtesy of Caesars.
Pirates vs Mets trend
The New York Mets have covered the run line in 17 of their last 27 games (+10.84 Units / 33% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Pirates vs. Mets.
How to watch Pirates vs Mets and game info
| Location | Citi Field, Flushing, NY |
| Date | Monday, 5-12-2025 |
| First pitch | 7:10 p.m. ET |
| TV | SportsNet Pittsburgh, SNY |
| Pirates starting pitcher | Paul Skenes (3-4, 2.77 ERA) |
| Mets starting pitcher | David Peterson (2-2, 3.05 ERA) |
Pirates vs Mets latest injuries
Pirates vs Mets weather
Not intended for use in MA.
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