Fresh off a win at T-Mobile Park on Monday, the New York Yankees and Seattle Mariners face off again this evening.
It took a bit longer than expected, but the Yankees eventually got to Seattle righty Emerson Hancock last night, scoring six runs in the fifth off him. It was an inning that would eventually propel the Bombers to an 11-5 win and extend the Mariners' losing streak to four games.
This time around, my Yankees vs. Mariners predictions expect the M's offense to be in tough against AL Cy Young front-runner Max Fried.
Find out more in my MLB picks for Tuesday, May 13.
Yankees vs Mariners prediction
My Yankees vs Mariners best bet: Max Fried Over 5.5 strikeouts (-140 at Bet365)
Max Fried is building a compelling Cy Young case. I wrote last week that I bet him in the futures market to do so, and not much has changed; the numbers speak volumes.
He's been nearly untouchable with a sparkling 1.04 ERA and an elite ground ball rate, allowing just one earned run across his last four starts. His strikeout rate, however, sits at a modest 22%—slightly above league average but below his career norms. This dip in strikeouts creates an opportunity for a discounted prop bet today, one in which I project a full strikeout higher than the current market consensus.
Fried's game is about precision and efficiency, not overpowering whiff rates. This makes his strikeout prop appealing against a Seattle Mariners team that swings and misses with the best of them. According to Bat X, T-Mobile Park is the second-best venue for strikeouts in MLB. Tipping the scales even further in our direction is weather conducive to less offense and stronger pitching.
Fried's durability and inning-eating archetype are key advantages. He's reached 100 pitches in three of eight starts this season and gone at least six innings in all but two. This workload increases his chances of racking up strikeouts through sheer volume. He's cleared his strikeout prop in consecutive games, and today's matchup sets up well for a third.
The Mariners are a great opponent for a pitcher like Fried. They rank third in whiff rate, bottom ten in chase contact, and top ten in first-pitch swing rate. Fried thrives on painting the edges, and no team he's faced this season has a whiff rate in the top ten—until now.
The Mariners also struggle against offspeed pitches, with up to six lineup regulars posting above-average whiff rates against the sweeper and curve. That’s the two lone pitches with whiff rates above 30% for Fried. We love that already. Add in Seattle’s 7% spike in strikeout rate against southpaws, and this prop becomes even more enticing.
The market hasn't fully accounted for these factors. At least not according to my projections.
I'm happily betting Fried's strikeout prop up to -160, as his efficiency, the Mariners' swing-happy approach, and the pitcher-friendly environment make this a high-value play.
Yankees vs Mariners same-game parlay (SGP)
Max Fried Over 5.5 strikeouts
Mitch Garver Under 0.5 hits
Jorbit Vivas Over 0.5 strikeouts
We paired two batter props with our best bet for today’s same-game parlay.
Mitch Garver looks like a good option to be held in check. His batting average of .172 against the fastball this season isn’t great. It’s made worse when facing a pitcher whose fastball has produced a .121 batting average and .181 expected batting average on that pitch.
We are finishing things off with Jorbit Vivas to record at least one strikeout. The rationale is simple: take an inexperienced player to whiff against one of the better young whiff-creating arms in the game.
Yankees vs Mariners odds
Yankees vs Mariners live odds
Yankees vs Mariners opening odds
- Moneyline: New York -122 | Seattle +113
- Run line: New York -1.5 (+115) | Seattle +1.5 (-160)
- Over/Under: Over 7 | Under 7
Yankees vs Mariners trend
The Seattle Mariners have hit the Game Total Over in 23 of their last 34 games (+11.75 Units / 32% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Yankees vs. Mariners.
How to watch Yankees vs Mariners and game info
| Location | T-Mobile Park, Seattle, WA |
| Date | Tuesday, 5-13-2025 |
| First pitch | 9:40 p.m. ET |
| TV | YES, RSNW |
| Yankees starting pitcher | Max Fried (6-0, 1.05 ERA) |
| Mariners starting pitcher | Bryan Woo (4-1, 3.25 ERA) |
Yankees vs Mariners latest injuries
Yankees vs Mariners weather
Not intended for use in MA.
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